Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.311249 4.140675e-01 0.527196 0.658887 0.806165 0.964236 1.145241
2025-07-20 0.181432 3.159550e-01 0.482087 0.692257 0.942870 1.225554 1.562616
2025-07-27 0.133939 2.856432e-01 0.488292 0.757507 1.089633 1.473519 1.939900
2025-08-03 0.093648 2.516164e-01 0.480587 0.798909 1.203357 1.680346 2.268550
2025-08-10 0.057109 2.089041e-01 0.451451 0.805252 1.268059 1.824379 2.519876
2025-08-17 0.023006 1.504872e-01 0.387819 0.756987 1.257585 1.873001 2.654507
2025-08-24 0.004628 1.014355e-01 0.326017 0.702213 1.231965 1.897945 2.756490
2025-08-31 0.000113 7.402554e-02 0.292759 0.683191 1.249491 1.973406 2.916889
2025-09-07 NaN 5.916741e-02 0.278834 0.690844 1.301392 2.091049 3.127952
2025-09-14 NaN 4.336568e-02 0.257474 0.683861 1.331210 2.179254 3.301838
2025-09-21 NaN 2.849276e-02 0.231338 0.665636 1.343050 2.242807 3.444031
2025-09-28 NaN 2.662401e-02 0.239608 0.705665 1.438227 2.414970 3.722028
2025-10-05 NaN 2.503392e-02 0.249699 0.751672 1.546364 2.609704 4.035703
2025-10-12 NaN 2.230442e-02 0.255474 0.790513 1.645131 2.793647 4.337921
2025-10-19 NaN 2.438606e-02 0.278027 0.859535 1.788114 3.035853 4.713400
2025-10-26 NaN 2.278111e-02 0.287011 0.903995 1.895128 3.230780 5.029643
2025-11-02 NaN 1.652566e-02 0.275803 0.910701 1.945964 3.351074 5.251547
2025-11-09 NaN 6.406124e-03 0.235442 0.859164 1.907873 3.351618 5.320709
2025-11-16 NaN 8.963802e-04 0.194692 0.800531 1.855420 3.330425 5.360206
2025-11-23 NaN 7.616028e-07 0.174542 0.780138 1.859605 3.384201 5.494147
2025-11-30 NaN NaN 0.168207 0.788345 1.908150 3.498321 5.705699
2025-12-07 NaN NaN 0.155488 0.780857 1.931094 3.576879 5.871039
2025-12-14 NaN NaN 0.138562 0.761300 1.933558 3.626482 5.998361